No one knows, but you have to perhaps have some sort of begrudging respect for North Korea which continues to try and launch a long-ranged missile. So far, so many fails, but we’ll see what happens this time.
飛行経路判明 「衛星カ バーも落下」 北朝鮮、３ カ所を通告
2012.12.3 19:51 ［北朝鮮］ 北朝鮮による長距離弾道ミサイル発射予 告に関連し、韓国国土海洋省は３日、北朝 鮮が関係国に伝えた飛行経路を発表した。 北朝鮮北西部の東倉里から日本の南西諸 島上空を通過して南方に向かう経路。切り 離し後の１段目、２段目のほか、「衛星」 を保護するカバー「フェアリング」の落下 予定海域３カ所を通告している。 失敗した４月のミサイル発射に先立ち北 朝鮮が国際機関に行った通告では、カバー の落下予定海域は含まれていなかった。衛 星打ち上げだと強調する狙いとみられる。 同省によると、１段目は韓国全羅北道の 西方沖の黄海、カバーが同国南部の済州島 西方沖、２段目がフィリピンの東方沖の太 平洋に落下し、４月とほぼ同じ飛行経路。 ただ、２段目の落下予想海域の範囲は南北 方向に大幅に縮小された。 同省は、北朝鮮が中国やシンガポールに 通告した航空情報の内容としている。（共 同） http://sankei.jp.msn.com/world/news/121203/kor12120319520006-n1.htm
Flight path revealed = “Satellite cover will fall” –North Korea announces in three places
Related to the previously announced long range ballistic missile to be launched by North Korea, the South Korea Ministry of Land and Oceans announced the flight path that North Korea delivered to the related countries. The flight path starts at Tongchang-Ri in northwestern North Korea and passes over southeastern Japan heading in a southern direction. After the first stage separates, the “fairings” that cover the 2 nd stage carrying the “satellite” are expected to fall into the sea in 3 separate places.
In the notifications that North Korea delivered to international organizations related to the failed missile launch in April , it did not include expected locations for the covers to fall. It seemingly is still insisting that the purpose is to launch a satellite.
According to the Ministry, the first stage will fall in the Yellow Sea west of Jeollabuk-Do in South Korea, the cover will fall in the sea off the western coast of the southern South Korean island of Jeju, and the 2 nd stage will fall into the Pacific east of the Phillipines, marking roughly the same flight path as the Aprial launch. However, the 2 nd stage’s projected area of ground contact has shrunk greatly in the south.
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