The LDP thinks they’re good to go

It’s hard for me to say but apparently polls say the LDP and Komeito will take over after the upcoming election. That doesn’t bode well for anyone wanting a change to the way things have always been in Japan, if the past 55 years of LDP governance is anything to go by. But, let’s get through the election first, cuz there’s no telling until the polls actually close.

That said, if you're curious what the LDP thinks they're going to do if they come into power, read on.

自民党:水面下で政権 移行準備 衆院選勝 利を見込み

毎日新聞 2012年12月14日 20時46分 （最終更新 12月14日 20時57分） 自民党が衆院選（１６日投開票）の勝 利を見込み、水面下で政権移行の準備に 入った。毎日新聞などの情勢調査では単独 過半数に届く勢いだが、公明党と連立を組 んで政権運営を安定させ、民主党や日本 維新の会などから政策ごとに協力を得る部 分（パーシャル）連合も視野に入れる。年 明けには安倍晋三総裁が訪米して日米同盟 重視の外交方針をアピールするとともに、 大型の１２年度補正予算案を編成して経済 優先の姿勢を示したい考えだ。 「自民党は３年前（の自公政権）とは次 元の違う経済政策でデフレから脱却し、円 高を是正する」 安倍氏は１４日、名古屋市の街頭演説 で、経済対策に最優先で取り組む方針を強 調した。自民党幹部は「来年夏の参院選ま では経済対策に特化し、憲法改正など『安 倍カラー』は抑える」と語る。 衆院選で自公が過半数に届かなければ、 第三極政党などとの連携を模索する必要が 出てくるが、自公で３００議席を上回る 情勢となっており、両党は速やかに自公連 立政権を発足させる方針だ。安倍氏は公明 党の山口那津男代表と１７日に会談し、連 立協議を行う予定。衆院選後の特別国会 は２６日に開会し、同日中にも組閣する日 程で調整している。 ただ、参院は両党だけでは過半数に届か ないため、国会運営を安定させるには他党 との協力が必要になる。安倍氏は「政策 ごとに理念と政策が一致したところと一緒 にやっていきたい」と話している。山口氏 も１４日、埼玉県戸田市で記者団に「自公 が合意形成の中心軸として積極的役割を 果たそうと思う。一貫して自公でという姿 勢を取っており、選挙が終わっても変わら ない」と強調した。 消費増税を柱とする税と社会保障の一体 改革では民主党と３党合意を結んでおり、 年金・医療制度などの改革へ向け民主党と 協力することを想定。金融政策などでは日 本維新の会やみんなの党など第三極との連 携も視野に入れているようだ。 安倍氏は新内閣の初閣議で、補正予算案 の編成と、１３年度予算概算要求の仕切り 直しを指示するとみられる。通常国会の 召集は来年１月末になりそうで、補正予算 案は２月に成立。１３年度予算案の成立は ５月の大型連休前後にずれ込む見通しで、 ４０５０日程度 の暫定予算編成が必要に なる。参院選をにらみ、補正や１３年度予 算案には防災と経済対策を兼ねた公共事業 費を盛り込んで景気浮揚を図る。 外交・安全保障政策で安倍氏は、尖閣諸 島を巡る中国との対立や北朝鮮のミサイル 発射などについて、民主党政権下で日米同 盟が揺らいだ「外交敗北の結果」と主 張。０６年の首相就任時には最初の海外出 張先に中国を選んだが、今回は日米関係の 再構築を優先させる方向。ただ、米国は減 税の期限切れなどの「財政の崖」問題を 抱え、外務省幹部は「オバマ大統領と日程 が合うかは分からない」としている。【犬 飼直幸、鈴木美穂】 http://mainichi.jp/select/news/20121215k0000m010082000c.html Liberal Democratic Party: below the surface preparations for governing -- Victory projected in Lower House election

The LDP is expecting to win the Lower House Elections (voting day is the 16 th ) and beginning below-the-surface preparations for the handover of power. According to analysis from the Mainichi Shimbun, they are projected to achieve a simple majority but will stabilize governing through coalition with Komeito and cooperation with the DPJ and Japan Restoration Society on some policy items could allow for a partial coalition as well. Party president Shinzo Abe will visit the US in the new year to call for diplomatic policies critical to both members of the alliance along with a wholesale revision of the 2012 fiscal year supplementary budget, showing his aim to prioritize economic growth.

“The LDP of today has a different perspective than 3 years ago (when it was last in power) and has economic policies that will rid us of deflation and correct the expensive yen.”

In a stump speech in Nagoya on the 14 th , Abe emphasized plans to prioritize economic policy. The LDP’s party executive group said, “Until next summer’s Upper House Elections, we will focus exclusively on economic policy, and constitutional reform and other Abe priorities will be restrained.”

If the LDP-Komeito coalition doesn’t achieve a majority in the Lower House election, it will be forced to explore coalition with the “third pole” parties, but if they gain 300 or more seats, both parties plan to quickly launch their coalition government. Abe met with Komeito’s party representative Natsuo Yamaguchi on the 17 th to schedule coalition discussions. A special parliamentary session will begin on the 26 th after Lower House elections, and they are discussing forming a cabinet on the same day.

However, since together the two parties do not have a majority in the Upper House, in order to maintain stable government they will have to cooperate with other parties. Abe said, “I hope to work together on points where we agree on policy.” On the 14 th in a press interview in Toda City in Saitama Prefecture, Yamaguchi said, “LDP-Komeito’s agreement will be the focal point, and we believe we can achieve many positive results in government. We have continued to be consistent in our cooperation as LDP & Komeito and this will not change after the election.”

The DPJ and its 3 coalition partners have made tax and social welfare reform (primarily through the consumption tax increase) the pillar of their campaign, and it’s expected that the LDP will cooperate with the DPJ on pension and medical care system reform. It also seems possible that the LDP could cooperate with the “third pole parties” like Japan Restoration Society and Everybody’s Party on fiscal policy.

It appears that Abe will focus his first cabinet meetings on revising the supplementary budget as well as starting over on the 2013 budget requests. The regular parliamentary session will probably be called in January of next year with the supplementary budget to be passed in February. The 2013 fiscal year budget is projected to be passed prior to the long holiday in May as it will likely take 40-50 days of provisional budget negotiations to achieve. In view of the Upper House elections, the supplementary and 2013 budgets will focus on improving business conditions through public works expenditures on disaster prevention and economic policies.

In foreign policy and national security, Abe charged, regarding the confrontation with China over the Senkaku Islands and the North Korean missile launch, that the Japan-US alliance had trembled as “a result of diplomatic failures” under the DPJ administration. During his first tenure as prime minister in 2006, Abe chose China as his first foreign visit but this time he is planning to focus on rebuilding the Japan-US relationship. However, due to the “fiscal cliff” issue in America, the foreign ministry has said, “We don’t know if we can fix a date with the Obama administration.”